“Developing superintelligence is now in sight,” says Mark Zuckerberg, heralding the “creation and discovery of new things that aren’t imaginable today.” Powerful AI “may come as soon as 2026 [and will be] smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most relevant fields,” says Dario Amodei, offering the doubling of human lifespans or even “escape velocity” from death itself. “We are now confident we know how to build AGI,” says Sam Altman, referring to the industry’s holy grail of artificial general intelligence — and soon superintelligent AI “could massively accelerate scientific discovery and innovation well beyond what we are capable of doing on our own.”

Should we believe them? Not if we trust the science of human intelligence, and simply look at the AI systems these companies have produced so far.

The common feature cutting across chatbots such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, and whatever Meta is calling its AI product this week are that they are all primarily “large language models.” Fundamentally, they are based on gathering an extraordinary amount of linguistic data (much of it codified on the internet), finding correlations between words (more accurately, sub-words called “tokens”), and then predicting what output should follow given a particular prompt as input. For all the alleged complexity of generative AI, at their core they really are models of language.

The problem is that according to current neuroscience, human thinking is largely independent of human language — and we have little reason to believe ever more sophisticated modeling of language will create a form of intelligence that meets or surpasses our own.