[Potential False-Positive Rate Among the ‘Asymptomatic Infected Individuals’ in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients]
March 17, 2020 in News by RBN Staff
Conclusion:
Nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported via screening tests might be false positives.
Source: PubMed
Abstract
Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clarify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention.
Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings.
Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.
Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the ‘asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
Keywords: COVID-19; Close contacts; False-positive; Nucleic acid test; Screening.
SEE ALSO:
https://www.livescience.com/matt-swider-stuck-in-egypt-coronavirus-quarantine.html
American stuck in Egypt for false-positive coronavirus test describes his struggle in military hospital
By
TechRadar Editor Matt Swider is learning firsthand what coronavirus quarantine looks like in Egypt.
Matt Swider, an editor at Live Science sister site TechRadar, shared this image from the Egyptian hospital where he’s been quarantined. (Image: © Matt Swider/TechRadar)
What’s it like to be quarantined in a country where you don’t speak the language?
Matt Swider, managing editor of TechRadar (a Live Science sister site), has been detailing the experience online despite having limited internet access. Swider was on a cruise with friends along Egypt’s Nile River when 12 crewmembers tested positive for the new coronavirus. Swider, who was shopping in the port of Luxor at the time and preparing to board a flight back to the United States, was recalled to the ship. There, 33 passengers, including Swider, tested positive for the virus and were led off the ship. From there, a military airplane shuttled them to a hospital near Alexandria.
