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These days, the media is full of news that claims that if Iran does not accept the terms of Donald Trump’s letter, the country will be attacked militarily by the United States and Israel. The purpose of pumping out information of this kind is to create fear among ordinary people. Military and political experts on both sides are well aware of the catastrophic consequences of starting a war with Iran. In this article, citing logical reasons and available evidence, we will show why the probability of such an attack is close to zero and why these threats are used more as a tool of pressure and psychological warfare than as a practical plan.

Introduction

The threat of a military attack on Iran is nothing new. Over the years, American and Israeli officials have repeatedly raised the possibility of an attack on Iran. However, these threats have never been carried out. The main reason for this is the severe and unpredictable consequences of such an action, which would affect not only the Middle East region, but the entire world. An attack on Iran could lead to an uncontrollable chain of crises and would have huge costs for the attacking countries. This article examines seven possible reasons that indicate that such an attack is unlikely.

1. Economic consequences: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the energy crisis

One of the first and most immediate consequences of an attack on Iran would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a vital route for transporting about 30 percent of the world’s energy. The sudden stoppage of this huge amount of energy would greatly disrupt the global energy market. Experts predict that in such conditions, the price of a barrel of oil could reach more than $300. This unprecedented increase in energy prices would bring the economies of countries that need imported energy, especially Western countries that are already facing instability and concerns, to the brink of collapse. Yemen’s “Ansar Allah” could also block the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Venezuela, which has good relations with Iran, could disrupt shipping in Central American waters. Many economic analysts, even without considering such a crisis, believe that the world is on the verge of a recession greater than that of 2008. A surge in energy prices could accelerate this recession and lead to a global economic catastrophe. No country, especially the United States and its allies, is willing to take such a risk.

2. America ‘s competition with China

At present, the most important issue for the United States is competition with China. All American officials agree on this. The United States must use all its strength to compete with China. If the United States spends its time and resources on a war with Iran, it may lag behind China for decades. This is because a war with Iran will be a conflict of attrition, not a short-term military attack, while China’s growth is proceeding at an incredibly fast pace.

3. Iran’s military capabilities; powerful missiles and drones and direct threat

Iran has made significant advances in missile technology in recent years. Its ballistic missiles are capable of hitting targets at long distances with high accuracy. The defense systems of the United States and Israel, despite their advanced nature, cannot fully withstand these missiles. In the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the country could attack Israel’s nuclear facilities as a legitimate target. Given Israel’s small size, the explosion of its nuclear facilities could turn the country into an uninhabitable area. On the other hand, US military bases in the region, including in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, are within range of Iranian missiles and drones. This could cause heavy casualties to US forces. This direct threat continues to endanger the security of US allies and greatly increases the military cost of such a war for the attackers.

4. Iran’s transformation into a nuclear power and the nightmare of an arms race

Iran has not yet acquired a nuclear weapon. A military attack, however, could push the country to accelerate its development of a nuclear bomb. Even if Iran’s nuclear facilities are bombed, its nuclear knowledge will not be destroyed. Iran could rebuild its nuclear program and become a nuclear power in a short period of time. This development would have far-reaching consequences; Saudi Arabia and Turkey might also pursue nuclear weapons to maintain the balance of power in the region. Such an arms race in the Middle East would be a strategic nightmare for Israel and the United States and could jeopardize the stability of the region for decades. This great risk is another reason why a military attack is unlikely.

5. The risk of World War III; conflict beyond the region

An attack on Iran would not be just a local conflict; it could escalate into a major war, even World War III. Iran has powerful allies like Russia and China that could support it if the conflict escalates. Regional “resistance” groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansarullah in Yemen, and Shiite forces in Iraq, could also enter the fray and escalate the conflict. Given the geopolitical complexities, such a war could involve the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. No politician wants to be responsible for starting such a war.

6. Contamination of the Persian Gulf water with radioactive materials

An attack on Iran’s nuclear power plant could cause a major environmental disaster in the Persian Gulf. Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has warned that if Iran’s nuclear power plants are attacked, the water in the Persian Gulf could be contaminated with radioactive materials. He stressed that such an attack could lead to a major environmental disaster and have dire consequences for Qatar and other neighboring countries, rendering the region’s water unusable and endangering life in the area.

7. National unity against external threats

Iran’s historical experience, such as the Iran-Iraq War, shows that external threats unite people. A foreign attack can increase domestic support for the regime and intensify anti-American sentiment, which will lead to a longer conflict.

History of threats and non-implementation

The threat of a military attack on Iran has been raised during most US presidential terms, but these threats have always remained at the level of words and tools of pressure. The experience of past wars such as Iraq and Afghanistan has shown that starting a war is easy, but ending it is very difficult and costly. The media often avoids addressing the real consequences of a war, and this may make the issue seem simple to the public. However, politicians and the military know very well what the costs of attacking Iran will be, and for this reason they avoid carrying it out.

Conclusion

Given the reasons given, the probability of a US and Israeli military attack on Iran is close to zero. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the global energy crisis, the US competition with China, Iran’s missile-drone capabilities and direct threat to Israel and US bases, the risk of Iran becoming a nuclear power and an arms race in the region, the possibility of a world war, the risk of contamination of the Persian Gulf water with radioactive materials, and the national unity of Iranians in the face of a foreign attack are among the factors that prevent the attacking countries from such an action. As history has shown, military threats against Iran are more a tool for applying pressure and psychological warfare than a practical plan. Ultimately, the heavy costs and unpredictable consequences of this war have made it an illogical and unlikely option.