Source: Axios.com

Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system over northern Israel, on Aug. 4, 2024. Photo: Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images

Israel told the U.S. that if Hezbollah harms Israeli civilians as part of its retaliation for the assassination of its top military commander, the Israel Defense Force’s response would be disproportionate, two Israeli officials said.

Why it matters: Israeli officials say they don’t want an all-out war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and are now trying to draw a clear line to define what would compel Israel to escalate the conflict and risk a war.

Driving the news: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Tuesday that the organization is going to retaliate for the assassination of Fuad Shukr by Israel in Beirut last week.

• He said Iran is also going to retaliate for Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
• “The fact that Israel is waiting for the response for a week is part of the punishment because it is also a psychological war that influences morale,” he said.
• Israeli and U.S. officials say they think Hezbollah and Iran are going to launch attacks against Israel in the coming days but they still don’t know when exactly and what the attacks are going to entail.

Between the lines: Several hours before Nasrallah’s speech, the editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, Ibrahim al-Amin, published a front page article that said Hezbollah is likely to target Tel Aviv as part of its response.

• The newspaper is affiliated with Hezbollah and Al-Amin is known to be close to Nasrallah. He wrote that Hezbollah has a lot of maneuvering space regarding its response because Lebanese civilians were killed during Shukr’s assassination in southern Beirut.
• “If Hezbollah can choose targets, it is possible that it will target Tel Aviv and civilians might be harmed on the margins. The effective thing will be to hit a significant center of the organization that made the decision about the assassination and took part in it,” he wrote.
• Israeli officials interpreted the article as saying the target for Hezbollah’s response could be the IDF headquarters in the center of Tel Aviv or the Mossad headquarters and other key intelligence bases in northern Tel Aviv.
• The bases are all close to civilian neighborhoods and if a rocket were to miss them, it would likely harm civilians.

Behind the scenes: Two Israeli officials said that in recent days Israel told the U.S. via several military channels that it is concerned Hezbollah could hit civilian population centers if it tries to target military bases in central Israel.

• IDF and Israeli Ministry of Defense officials told their Pentagon and CENTCOM counterparts that throughout the war Hezbollah’s rocket fire has been inaccurate and its attempts to hit military bases have been accompanied by serious problems and mishaps, Israeli officials said.
• One significant example: The Hezbollah rocket attack that hit the village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights last month. Israeli officials have said they think Hezbollah was targeting a military base, but missed it and hit a soccer field, killing 12 children.
• Israeli officials say there are even more serious concerns about Hezbollah inaccurately launching long-range surface-to-surface missiles, which have bigger warheads and can cause much greater damage and more casualties.

What they’re saying: “In the internal discussions with the U.S., Israel stressed that the cost of another Hezbollah mishap would be heavy and that Hezbollah would pay a disproportionate price if it harmed civilians as part of its retaliation,” a senior Israeli official said.

• The Pentagon declined to comment.

Editor’s note: This story was updated to reflect that the Pentagon declined to comment